Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 0.043907 0.049608 0.055942 0.063531 0.072419 0.082546 0.095029
2026-02-01 0.033853 0.040620 0.048719 0.059226 0.072643 0.089400 0.112227
2026-02-08 0.028174 0.035624 0.045147 0.058426 0.076809 0.101891 0.139654
2026-02-15 0.023886 0.031649 0.042181 0.057884 0.081364 0.116308 0.174562
2026-02-22 0.020758 0.028720 0.040139 0.058289 0.087562 0.135127 0.223370
2026-03-01 0.018179 0.026160 0.038205 0.058538 0.093811 0.156350 0.285902
2026-03-08 0.015705 0.023379 0.035490 0.057058 0.097044 0.173980 0.351434
2026-03-15 0.013234 0.020247 0.031724 0.053090 0.094991 0.181541 0.401410
2026-03-22 0.011869 0.018711 0.030363 0.053162 0.100838 0.207861 0.513657
2026-03-29 0.010884 0.017669 0.029694 0.054433 0.109706 0.245251 0.686420
2026-04-05 0.009889 0.016474 0.028558 0.054565 0.116315 0.280912 0.890131
2026-04-12 0.008996 0.015340 0.027363 0.054343 0.122201 0.318386 1.146054
2026-04-19 0.008077 0.014060 0.025727 0.052916 0.125014 0.350040 1.430030
2026-04-26 0.007188 0.012730 0.023800 0.050437 0.124375 0.371330 1.706424
2026-05-03 0.006641 0.012004 0.023023 0.050580 0.131466 0.425580 2.284607
2026-05-10 0.006164 0.011358 0.022324 0.050790 0.139061 0.488848 3.101790
2026-05-17 0.005789 0.010877 0.021916 0.051694 0.149505 0.574786 4.421902
2026-05-24 0.005439 0.010404 0.021459 0.052376 0.159720 0.671486 6.342112
2026-05-31 0.005032 0.009762 0.020512 0.051460 0.163884 0.742915 8.433550
2026-06-07 0.004542 0.008891 0.018899 0.048246 0.157976 0.752348 9.691372
2026-06-14 0.004288 0.008518 0.018464 0.048547 0.166743 0.866169 14.116693
2026-06-21 0.004106 0.008290 0.018360 0.049886 0.180872 1.040114 22.845203
2026-06-28 0.003892 0.007964 0.017959 0.050172 0.190620 1.200264 35.248786